Ajman University Webinar Discusses Impact of Covid-19 on Global Population Evolution

Wednesday, Feb 17, 2021
Ajman University Webinar Discusses Impact of Covid-19 on Global Population Evolution

The ongoing Covid-19 pandemic has increased mortality rates across the world, birth rates have reportedly dropped in some countries, while migrations may be ebbing a little. Will this significantly impact how the global population evolves over the next few years? That was the focus of the discussion during a webinar at Ajman University, organized on the occasion of the UNESCO-promoted International Day of Women in Science on February 11.

Dr. Zahia Ouadah-Bedidi, Research Professor at the Institute of Humanities and Social Sciences of the University of Paris was the guest speaker at the webinar, presided over by Professor Shaher Momani, Dean at Ajman University’s College of Humanities and Sciences (CHS) and moderated by Dr. Soumaya Abdellatif, Assistant Professor, CHS. The webinar was entitled Demographic Transition in Times of Crisis: What are the Consequences of Covid-19?

Dr. Zahia used the Theory of Demographic Transition to examine and explain historical trends in global population evolution. Population projections for all countries over the world are based on three key parameters: mortality, births (fertility) and migration, she said. These parameters when juxtaposed on the current situation may suggest a need to revise global population projections in the near future.

There have been several momentous events in history when the natural process of demographic transition has been disrupted due to abnormal circumstances such as war, Cholera, Smallpox, Spanish Influenza, HIV etc. In certain countries, this disruption led to changes in life expectancy and birth rates. For example, a serious increase in mortality, significant reduction in births and migration flows affected population growth and consequently the population structure.

Global population projections were consequently revised to factor in these unanticipated developments. So, are we going to review the recent predictions of the world population again as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic?

“Since the beginning of the pandemic, demographers are mobilized around the world, trying to understand this phenomenon and its impact on the global demography. Demographers need time to obtain strong and valid indicators, they need to ask about the methods and the tools used for producing statistics especially in an international comparison scheme.  We have to be sure about the comparability of data and indicators obtained,” said Dr. Zahia.

With no disrespect to those who perished in this pandemic, some of the broad trends that are emerging are indeed grim. For instance, men and women in France lost 0.2 years and 0.1 year of life expectancy respectively, according to preliminary estimates at the beginning of the pandemic by researchers Michel Guillot and Myriam Khlat from the French Institute of Demographic Studies (INED).

The National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies in France (INSEE) confirms this, estimating the pandemic-induced drop in life expectancy at 0.4 years and 0.5 years respectively for women and men in France ( The number of marriages and births have also declined, according to INSEE estimates. However, the situation is still not comparable with the world AIDS epidemic which has affected millions of young people, without changing the curve of global demographic development.

The data available do not allow us to conclude that the current pandemic is actually a real mortality crisis, said Dr. Zahia. A mortality crisis, as defined by eminent French demographer Hervé le Bras, is a situation when annual deaths are three times higher than usual. With a Covid-19 mortality rate of around 0.7%, and 80% of these deaths having occurred in those over 70 years old, it cannot be classified as a mortality crisis nor does it have a significant impact on demographics. A decline in births has also been observed, but this could merely be a postponement of parenting plans due to the current pandemic and not a real change in reproductive behavior.

“As for migrations, time will allow us to see the international flows taking place and whether it will continue to compensate for the low birth rates observed in some old countries,” added Dr. Zahia.




English arabic placement enrollment aid college ratio asterisk plus question minus glass music search envelope-o heart star star-o user film th-large th th-list check close search-plus search-minus power-off signal cog trash-o home file-o clock-o road download arrow-circle-o-down arrow-circle-o-up inbox play-circle-o repeat refresh list-alt lock flag headphones volume-off volume-down volume-up qrcode barcode tag tags book bookmark print camera font bold italic text-height text-width align-left align-center align-right align-justify list dedent indent video-camera image pencil map-marker adjust tint edit share-square-o check-square-o arrows step-backward fast-backward backward play pause stop forward fast-forward step-forward eject chevron-left chevron-right plus-circle minus-circle times-circle check-circle question-circle info-circle crosshairs times-circle-o check-circle-o ban arrow-left arrow-right arrow-up arrow-down mail-forward expand compress exclamation-circle gift leaf fire eye eye-slash exclamation-triangle plane calendar random comment magnet chevron-up chevron-down retweet shopping-cart folder folder-open arrows-v arrows-h bar-chart twitter-square facebook-square camera-retro key cogs comments thumbs-o-up thumbs-o-down star-half heart-o sign-out linkedin-square thumb-tack external-link sign-in trophy github-square upload lemon-o phone square-o bookmark-o phone-square twitter facebook github unlock credit-card feed hdd-o bullhorn bell-o certificate hand-o-right hand-o-left hand-o-up hand-o-down arrow-circle-left arrow-circle-right arrow-circle-up arrow-circle-down globe wrench tasks filter briefcase arrows-alt group chain cloud flask cut copy paperclip floppy-o square bars list-ul list-ol strikethrough underline table magic truck pinterest pinterest-square google-plus-square google-plus money caret-down caret-up caret-left caret-right columns sort sort-desc sort-asc envelope linkedin rotate-left gavel dashboard comment-o comments-o bolt sitemap umbrella clipboard lightbulb-o exchange cloud-download cloud-upload user-md stethoscope suitcase bell coffee cutlery file-text-o building-o hospital-o ambulance medkit fighter-jet beer h-square plus-square angle-double-left angle-double-right angle-double-up angle-double-down angle-left angle-right angle-up angle-down desktop laptop tablet mobile circle-o quote-left quote-right spinner circle mail-reply github-alt folder-o folder-open-o smile-o frown-o meh-o gamepad keyboard-o flag-o flag-checkered terminal code mail-reply-all star-half-empty location-arrow crop code-fork chain-broken info exclamation superscript subscript eraser puzzle-piece microphone microphone-slash shield calendar-o fire-extinguisher rocket maxcdn chevron-circle-left chevron-circle-right chevron-circle-up chevron-circle-down html5 css3 anchor unlock-alt bullseye ellipsis-h ellipsis-v rss-square play-circle ticket minus-square minus-square-o level-up level-down check-square pencil-square external-link-square share-square compass caret-square-o-down caret-square-o-up caret-square-o-right eur gbp dollar inr cny rouble krw bitcoin file file-text sort-alpha-asc sort-alpha-desc sort-amount-asc sort-amount-desc sort-numeric-asc sort-numeric-desc thumbs-up thumbs-down youtube-square youtube xing xing-square youtube-play dropbox stack-overflow instagram flickr adn bitbucket bitbucket-square tumblr tumblr-square long-arrow-down long-arrow-up long-arrow-left long-arrow-right apple windows android linux dribbble skype foursquare trello female male gittip sun-o moon-o archive bug vk weibo renren pagelines stack-exchange arrow-circle-o-right arrow-circle-o-left caret-square-o-left dot-circle-o wheelchair vimeo-square try plus-square-o space-shuttle slack envelope-square wordpress openid bank graduation-cap yahoo google reddit reddit-square stumbleupon-circle stumbleupon delicious digg pied-piper-pp pied-piper-alt drupal joomla language fax building child paw spoon cube cubes behance behance-square steam steam-square recycle automobile cab tree spotify deviantart soundcloud database file-pdf-o file-word-o file-excel-o file-powerpoint-o file-image-o file-archive-o file-audio-o file-movie-o file-code-o vine codepen jsfiddle life-bouy circle-o-notch ra empire git-square git hacker-news tencent-weibo qq wechat paper-plane paper-plane-o history circle-thin header paragraph sliders share-alt share-alt-square bomb futbol-o tty binoculars plug slideshare twitch yelp newspaper-o wifi calculator paypal google-wallet cc-visa cc-mastercard cc-discover cc-amex cc-paypal cc-stripe bell-slash bell-slash-o trash copyright at eyedropper paint-brush birthday-cake area-chart pie-chart line-chart lastfm lastfm-square toggle-off toggle-on bicycle bus ioxhost angellist cc ils meanpath buysellads connectdevelop dashcube forumbee leanpub sellsy shirtsinbulk simplybuilt skyatlas cart-plus cart-arrow-down diamond ship user-secret motorcycle street-view heartbeat venus mars mercury intersex transgender-alt venus-double mars-double venus-mars mars-stroke mars-stroke-v mars-stroke-h neuter genderless facebook-official pinterest-p whatsapp server user-plus user-times bed viacoin train subway medium y-combinator optin-monster opencart expeditedssl battery battery-3 battery-2 battery-1 battery-0 mouse-pointer i-cursor object-group object-ungroup sticky-note sticky-note-o cc-jcb cc-diners-club clone balance-scale hourglass-o hourglass-1 hourglass-2 hourglass-3 hourglass hand-grab-o hand-paper-o hand-scissors-o hand-lizard-o hand-spock-o hand-pointer-o hand-peace-o trademark registered creative-commons gg gg-circle tripadvisor odnoklassniki odnoklassniki-square get-pocket wikipedia-w safari chrome firefox opera internet-explorer television contao 500px amazon calendar-plus-o calendar-minus-o calendar-times-o calendar-check-o industry map-pin map-signs map-o map commenting commenting-o houzz vimeo black-tie fonticons reddit-alien edge credit-card-alt codiepie modx fort-awesome usb product-hunt mixcloud scribd pause-circle pause-circle-o stop-circle stop-circle-o shopping-bag shopping-basket hashtag bluetooth bluetooth-b percent gitlab wpbeginner wpforms envira universal-access wheelchair-alt question-circle-o blind audio-description volume-control-phone braille assistive-listening-systems american-sign-language-interpreting deaf glide glide-g sign-language low-vision viadeo viadeo-square snapchat snapchat-ghost snapchat-square pied-piper first-order yoast themeisle google-plus-circle fa handshake-o envelope-open envelope-open-o linode address-book address-book-o address-card address-card-o user-circle user-circle-o user-o id-badge drivers-license drivers-license-o quora free-code-camp telegram thermometer thermometer-3 thermometer-2 thermometer-1 thermometer-0 shower bath podcast window-maximize window-minimize window-restore times-rectangle times-rectangle-o bandcamp grav etsy imdb ravelry eercast microchip snowflake-o superpowers wpexplorer meetup icon-students icon-class-room icon-arab-world icon-globe-cap icon-world-map